Most of us are DEPENDENT on a global network to get through the day.
Unfortunately, this network is tightly coupled.
Tightly coupled? What the heck is that?
Tightly coupled is a term used by engineers. It’s a system where the parts are interdependent.
As a result, a change or failure in one part of the system has an immediate impact on the other parts of the system.
In world that’s tightly coupled, a disaster in one part of the world will immediately be felt in another part of the world. We saw this on a grand scale with the financial disaster in 2008, and we are going to see it again and again in the future.
Here’s an example of tight coupling in practice:
___________
I’ve spent a considerable amount of time over the last decade working on “what if” scenarios for the Pentagon, CIA, and NSA.
One of those scenarios, naturally, was a war with Iran (one of the world’s top oil exporting countries).
A little known conclusion of that scenario analysis was that a war with Iran greatly increased when deep sanctions were applied.
Why? Simply:
- Sanctions disconnect the Iranians from the global economy which soften the impact of a war with them.
- Sanctions also accelerate societal and economic decay in Iran, making it highly likely that it would start a conflict.
The reason I’m bringing this up, is that these deep sanctions are now being put in place.
In particular, the EU is about to start a boycott Iranian oil and the Chinese are already looking for alternatives.
This means one thing: our governments have radically increased the probability of a war with Iran.
Oh joy.
So, what does a war with Iran mean? I could spend hours on this analysis, but most of that really would not matter to you. What does matter is that a war with Iran will ripple through the world as energy prices zoom and economies already on the brink crump.
It will be a global train wreck, and through tight coupling, you will be along for the ride.
___________
So, what can you do? Most of the advice you will get will be hedge your finances. That’s fine, but that’s only a small part of the solution and clearly insufficient given the exposures involved.
No, what you really need to do is decouple your future from the world’s future. To find a way to stay connected to the benefits of a huge global economy while eliminating your exposure to its downsides.
The best ways, and likely the only way, to do this is to live in a resilient community. A community that produces most of what it needs and is not dependent on continuous support from an increasingly unstable global network.
My goal is to help you do that.
