Greece may default on its debt today (Wednesday). This has put the global financial system on the edge of another meltdown. This is yet another unfortunate reminder that an economic depression and political instability are real and tangible threats.
So, this is probably a good time to take a moment to think about your strategies for dealing with an increasingly uncertain future. Ask yourself this question: are you robust or resilient?
To make this easier, let’s start with a fun example. In the second installment of the excellent Terminator movie series, Arnold Schwarzenegger was cast as a robot called a Terminator. This robot was what we could call a robust system. A robust system is able to absorb a terrific amount of damage before it fails.
In the movie, the Terminator faced off against a new superior series of robot, the liquid metal T-1000. In contrast to Arnold’s robust robot, the liquid metal T-1000 was a resilient system. This meant that if the T-1000 was blown apart, the parts could and would quickly reassemble themselves back into a fully functional version of itself.
What happened during the fight? The T-1000 inflicted terrible damage on Arnold’s robot. He continually lost parts whenever the damage he absorbed exceeded his structural robustness. He looked pretty ragged by the end. In contrast, the T-1000 was able to handle all of the damage inflicted without even a suffering a blemish (except at the dramatically contrived ending). Why? Because the T-1000 was designed to be resilient.
So, how does this apply to you? The way I see it, you have two strategic options for dealing with an uncertain future. You can choose to be either:
- robust or
- resilient.
A robust strategy means that you will continually make investments and decisions that reinforce your current position. Take steps that make yourself impervious to damage. What do you do? You stockpile. You armor yourself. You hedge and invest in safety. You run and hide.
Resilience means you focus on investments that provide you with an ability to adapt. To change based on the what the situation becomes. What do you do? You build systems that produce food, energy, water, and products. You build networks and communities. You invest in the future.
What do I recommend?
Everyone needs robustness in the short term, to handle fast moving shocks. However, robustness is not a long term strategy. The only long term strategy is resilience. A resilience that invests in the ability to change and adapt. To meet threats and exploit opportunities that we haven’t or can’t specifically anticipate.
Let me know what you think.
Your constantly adapting to new circumstance analyst,
John Robb
